A possible setback for Donald Trump in the US midterm elections would not necessarily weaken Trumpism or bring a return to normality in transatlantic relations, while Greece should not take American security guarantees for granted, a leading Greek foreign policy analyst has told SKAI.gr.
Panagiotis Tsakonas, professor of International Relations at the University of Athens and head of the Foreign Policy and Security Programme at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), says that even if Democrats win control of both chambers of Congress, the outcome would not fundamentally change the direction of US foreign policy.
A Democratic victory would strengthen institutional checks on the president through congressional oversight and control of federal spending. But Trump would retain extensive powers in foreign policy and could even respond to a stronger congressional challenge with a more confrontational approach towards the European Union.
“The biggest misconception would be to assume that Trump's electoral weakening would automatically mean the weakening of Trumpism in American foreign policy,” Tsakonas says.
Greece cannot take US support for granted
For Athens, the implications of the elections go beyond the balance of power in Washington. Greece has invested heavily in its strategic relationship with the United States, but Tsakonas cautions against assuming that this will translate into automatic American backing in a confrontation with Turkey.
In the event of a serious Greek-Turkish crisis, Athens could realistically expect Washington to intervene diplomatically to help de-escalate tensions. It should not, however, count on guarantees of military assistance or unconditional support for Greek positions.
The US priority, he argues, would most likely be to prevent a conflict between two NATO allies, rather than to take Greece's side.
“Strengthening Greece's international position does not automatically entail American guarantees against Turkey,” he says.
Tsakonas also points to the limits of congressional influence. A Democratic-controlled Congress could increase pressure on the administration over arms sales to Turkey, including a possible return to the F-35 programme. But Congress alone cannot overturn the broader strategic priorities of US policy towards Ankara.
For Greece, the challenge is to turn its strategic importance into tangible benefits, including greater participation by the Greek defence industry in procurement programmes and the transfer of technology.
Europe's defence challenge
Tsakonas argues that Europe also needs to address its political divisions. European governments continue to prioritise national interests and pursue bilateral arrangements with Washington, weakening the bloc's ability to act as a unified geopolitical force.
The problem with European defence, he says, is not simply a lack of money or military capabilities. It is primarily political: Europe needs a common understanding of the threats it faces and more effective mechanisms for making decisions.
Greece should press for a European security framework that takes into account threats in the Aegean and the Eastern Mediterranean, rather than focusing almost exclusively on Russia and the eastern flank.
Ukraine and a dangerous precedent
A Democratic majority in Congress could seek to revive US military assistance to Ukraine and push for tougher sanctions against Russia. However, Tsakonas stresses that Trump would retain the leading role in shaping US policy and any negotiations to end the war.
For Greece and Cyprus, the most worrying outcome would be a peace agreement that legitimised territorial gains made through Russia's invasion without providing Ukraine with credible security guarantees.
Accepting changes to borders through the use of force would set an extremely dangerous political precedent, he warns.
Ultimately, Tsakonas argues, Greece must reduce its dependence on the changing priorities of successive US administrations by strengthening its own deterrent capabilities, investing in European security and deepening its international partnerships.
“The goal is not to move away from the United States, but to reduce dependence on the choices of successive American administrations,” he says.
Read the ΕNews today and stay informed about the latest news.
Follow Skai.gr on Google News and be the first to know all the news.